Any government cuts to housing investment will lead to widespread job loss and plunge the country into an even deeper housing crisis, Shelter says today.
As the Treasury prepares to announce deep spending cuts across government, Shelter is warning that £610 million of funding for new homes this year is at risk.
This, coupled with the £150 million of cuts to housing announced by the Chancellor in May, will mean 12,625 less homes built, 19,000 job losses and a cost of £2.7 billion to the economy.
New analysis by the housing charity shows that for every pound cut from public investment in housing, the wider economy will take a hit of at least £3.50.
At a time of record unemployment, Shelter is today warning that Government investment in new homes must be ring-fenced to continue to support house building during the downturn so that homes are delivered and jobs and skills protected.
Campbell Robb, chief executive of Shelter, said: “On top of the 1.8 million households on waiting lists and the million children in overcrowding who desperately need new homes, this research also shows how crucial house building is to our economy, providing vital jobs and economic growth.
“With the private sector hit hard by the recession, public housing investment has been critical in getting homes built. Cuts now would cause one of our key industries to continue to flounder, bringing house building to a standstill at a time when the need for more homes has never been greater.
“As Government decides where the axe will fall, it must consider the colossal impact that cutting housing investment will have. If the overarching aim is to stabilise our already fragile economy, cuts now just don’t make economic sense.”
Areas such as the North East, already highlighted as a region at risk of public sector job losses, are likely to be hit hard by cuts to housing investment, with one in 12 people in work employed in the construction industry.
Shelter is warning that large-scale job losses would mean the loss of skills that could take over a decade to recover.
Campbell Robb continued: “We know from the last recession that it took years for the construction industry to recover and we simply cannot afford let this happen again.
“Every job loss takes with it vital skills and expertise that will be lost forever if people leave the workforce altogether or retrain in other sectors. There is a real danger that when house building picks up again we won't have the capacity to build the homes we need.
“Each year that we fail to deliver enough homes the backlog will grow greater, pushing us deeper and deeper into a housing crisis that will become impossible to get out of. We owe it to future generations to continue investment now so they are not saddled with this legacy.”
Later this year Shelter will be releasing further research quantifying the social and economic return on housing investment in areas including crime, health and education.
1. A £1 cut to public capital housing investment leads to £1.68 of total cuts to housing investment including leveraged private investment of 68 pence for every £1 of public money (Shelter estimates based on the Homes and Communities Agency (HCA) Corporate Plan 2009/10-2010/11 and the HCA Regional Investment Statements for 2009). This investment would generate an additional £1.83 of output in the national economy based on a construction multiplier (of 2.09) taken from the UK Input-Output Tables (2002 Edition) published by the Office for National Statistics.
2. The £760 million comprises £150 million of confirmed HCA cuts to the NAHP and Kickstart programmes and £610 million of funding that the HCA has indicated is at risk in the Emergency Budget. http://www.homesandcommunities.co.uk/Impact-government-spending-review. The document states that £780 million of funding cannot be regarded as safe, but that £170 million of funding cuts will be recycled, putting £610 million at risk.
3. This analysis is calculated on a per dwelling basis and the true extent of investment cuts may be greater if entire housing developments are placed at risk due to reduced public funding for the affordable component.
4. Shelter has estimated that this will lead to 12,625 less homes based on the HCA Corporate Plan for 2010/11 and includes planned investment and housing completions supported by the National Affordability Housing Programme, Local Authority Newbuild, Kickstart, and Housing Pledge housing programmes, the HCA’s Public Land and Property & Regeneration programmes, and the non-HCA Housing PFI Credits and ALMO programmes.
5. The total job cuts assume 1.5 Full-Time Equivalent Employees (FTE) per completed dwelling, taken from The Labour Needs of Extra Housing Output, HBF, Construction Skills, March 2005.
6. Of the 1,140,000 employees in the North East, 96,300 are employed in the construction sector (Annual Population Survey Oct 2008-Sep 2009).
Want more information? Contact us:
t: 020 7505 2162 (Office hours)
m: 07850 901 142 (out of hours)
e: press_office@shelter.org.uk
Our latest tweets